Optimists



AP



A wave of foreclosures is forcing down home prices in most major U.S. cities. But economists and real estate agents are noticing what they call a key first step for any housing recovery: a drop in the glut of homes for sale in markets hit hardest by foreclosures.



If we were to see several consecutive months of supply getting smaller, it would point to an improving housing market, said Celia Chen, senior director…

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 We all know whats happening to the single family home markets. Over supply and shadow inventory and the subsequent price declines will continue until fear is overcome and inventory is soaked up.



The kinds of issues that led to a boom bust in housing did not take place with multi family. There was no build out leading to over supply and the lender market was much more rationlized. Little of the kind of lending that led to so many foreclosures, ultimately driving home…

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Real Estate Porn

The search bunny keeps on going



Its interesting that online search for real estate is as strong as ever. Sales are miserable, people are afraid to buy. They no longer know what value and they have no job security. So, why is search so strong. Realtor.com President, Errol Samuelson notes that Online search is a critical measure of interest in real estate, especially now that more than 90 percent of buyers search for their homes…

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Case Shiller report shows a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs. Housing generally leads the economy out of a recession. This time its not, housing is simply suffering. Not only is money tight but job creation is still a big hurt. In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.



David M. Blitze,chairman of S.&P.’s index committee tells the NY Times that a double-dip could be confirmed before spring. He goes on to say the series is now…

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NAR Existing Home Sales



Existing home sales which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November, but are 27.9% below the cyclical peak of 6.49 million in November 2009, which was the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit. Median existing single-family home prices rose year-over-year in 77 of 155 metropolitan areas and fell in 76…

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The coming FHA reforms will help stabilize FHA's financial viability. FHA will be allowed to raise premiums. The cap on the maximum annual FHA insurance premium increases from 0.5% to 1.5% and for loans with high loan To Value ratios, 0.55% to 1.55%. But the real importance is how the reforms will shift liquidity to rental property.



Multi Family

The bill also increases FHA's multifamily loan limits for elevator buildings and buildings in high cost areas, helping lenders… Continue

Well, we all have heard the bad news, housing sales down again, hugely - 23% in the quarter. NAR reports that sales are at their lowest since the sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales are at the lowest level since May of 1995. And it doesnt look much better in the near term either. Pending sales, a forward indicator of market activity, dropped 30% based on contracts signed on May and is almost 16% the May 09 numbers.



These reports are always about today. The… Continue

The U.S. House has passed a bill giving home buyers an extra three months to complete their purchases and still qualify for a generous tax credit.The Senate is working to reach an agreement with Republicans to pass the House-passed homebuyer tax credit closing date extension early as today.



Although the case shiller index came in suggesting a fragile recovery is waning, it didnt include the sales figures representing market behavior after the end of the homebuyers tax credit.… Continue

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8 percent higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009. Monthly sales rose 7.0 percent in March.



The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will… Continue

The recent Case Shiller report shows price declines in front of the tax credit completion...The index gives us a slight 0.38% decline in the top ten market composite. Year over year the index is up 3.15% when compared to March 09. Recent strong price moves will come to a serious halt because the tax stimulus is behind us. The silver lining in this is that it proves demand is there, just waiting for the right price and for some of this historic uncertainty to settle. This… Continue

With house prices expected to slid and unemployment to rise substantially further, this third foreclosure wave will grow larger. If house prices fallanother 10% over the coming year,as Moody’s Economy.com currently forecasts, an estimated 18.6 million homeowners could be underwater.



More to Come

Even if the economy stabilizes in 2010 as expected, defaults will remain elevated long afterward. More large payment resets are due to hit… Continue