(This article is excerpted from series of articles I am writing for Summer Street Advisors.  For a print version, click here.)

The Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) market is back!  Is that a good thing?  How should investors approach CMBS this time around?…

Continue

(This is a reprint of an article written for Wrightwood Capital.  Click here for print version) 

It’s difficult to remain up-beat in times of crisis, recession and recovery.  The economy is improving, but it doesn’t always feel good. At the same time, there are plenty of reasons to be positive. Commercial…

Continue

Case Shiller report shows a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs. Housing generally leads the economy out of a recession. This time its not, housing is simply suffering. Not only is money tight but job creation is still a big hurt. In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.



David M. Blitze,chairman of S.&P.’s index committee tells the NY Times that a double-dip could be confirmed before spring. He goes on to say the series is now…

Continue

(Click here for print version) For all of us slogging through one of the most difficult real estate markets in a lifetime, it may be difficult to believe that new growth is on the horizon. The problems of today will not be solved easily or quickly, but a powerful growth force is stirring that can push commercial real estate into a new era of change. Are we ready for it? Are we…

Continue

The number of homeowners missing their first payment on their mortgage declined from May to June and number of loans in foreclosure was flat at nearly 2 million. Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable but elevated with two loans deteriorating for every one that has improved. see chart here



So Whats The… Continue

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8 percent higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009. Monthly sales rose 7.0 percent in March.



The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will… Continue

The recent Case Shiller report shows price declines in front of the tax credit completion...The index gives us a slight 0.38% decline in the top ten market composite. Year over year the index is up 3.15% when compared to March 09. Recent strong price moves will come to a serious halt because the tax stimulus is behind us. The silver lining in this is that it proves demand is there, just waiting for the right price and for some of this historic uncertainty to settle. This… Continue

With house prices expected to slid and unemployment to rise substantially further, this third foreclosure wave will grow larger. If house prices fallanother 10% over the coming year,as Moody’s Economy.com currently forecasts, an estimated 18.6 million homeowners could be underwater.



More to Come

Even if the economy stabilizes in 2010 as expected, defaults will remain elevated long afterward. More large payment resets are due to hit… Continue