Look, I'll take any good news on the market I can get, and I'm happy that Ben Bernanke sees a recovery in his crystal ball. I've said before in this space that I'm no economist, but seems to me that if your market is hurting or you're out of a job or you can't find lending money, it doesn't matter what anyone believes. Our GlobeSt.com poll last week revealed that only 28% of our readership thinks a recovery is possible before the end of the year. That leaves 72% saying, "No Chance." Keep the good news coming, Ben. It will help the mood and, more than anything coming out of DC, stimulate the economy. In the commercial real estate market, with it's mountain of mortgages coming to term, it simply won't matter. Not yet. What do you think?

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Comment by Elaine M Lyles on August 24, 2009 at 12:12pm
Unfortunately, I was not responding to your post.

But now that I've gleened it, my response in no way indicates continuing the addict's dependence. It is suggesting that perhaps we find a "different" method of treatment than continuing to tell the addict that he's an addict. Unless the addict is willing to admit that he's an addict, we serve no purpose.

Basically, the damage has already been, now what do we do? If we, however, shift access to the addict's favorite drug of choice then we can begin the process of finding a solution/recovery. Or in the alternative, devise another methodology or solution to the problem.

Treating the sympton versus the source of the problem (reason for the addiction) is not a solution.
Comment by Douglas Wolf on August 24, 2009 at 11:58am
I am not certain if Ms. Lyles was responding to my post or not, but is she was, I disagree that I am regurgitating the media accounts. I look to Noriel Roubini as someone who correctly recognized this credit bubble before anyone else. Gravity always works and debts must be paid. We have socialized the debts created by the Wall Street miscreants in order to save the "free market" as Bush II said, but, I wonder how you save a drug addict by doubling up the dose?
Comment by Elaine M Lyles on August 24, 2009 at 11:49am
Have you ever been told you couldn't do something by someone, but did it anyway? Not to prove them wrong but to demonstrate the power of one. Perhaps, you could join the 28% and begin tipping the scale toward the positive vs. the negative. That is, of course, unless the negative is serving you well. With the cup being 72% empty, one might want to start filling it with something, anything to keep your mind actively engaged of the process of defining a solution. Why, because you are either part of the problem or part of the solution. Which will it be?

I'm not saying we don't have some opportunity to create a different paradigm. I'm just saying what does regurgitating the press's perspective, because that is after all their job, have to do with contributing some insight, perspective and innovation to the situation?

Please note, "There is a time for every season under the sun." This just might be a good time to start looking for the light (of day) versus bumping around in the darkness (where one might stub their toe and add to the pain already being felt).
Comment by Douglas Wolf on August 24, 2009 at 11:46am
My opinion is that much of what drives the so-called "animal spirits" of the market (Keynes) is public perception. So, the public prononcements are as important as the actual programs. Bernanke and his team have made almost all the right moves to avoid depression 2.0, but the hangover of debt service at all levels is going to be a drag for several years. The TALF money, if handled correctly and not given away to inside players should relieve immediate pressure on the entire system. But, the time curve up will likely be repeated on the downside.

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